Stocks: Reduce Risk Yet Maximize Profits

It is important to note that every smart investor wants to minimize risk while maximizing profit potential. Yet conventional investment theory tells us that in order to increase returns, you have to increase risk.

You may be surprised to find that this conventional wisdom is not always true.

When I was a professional stock trader, I made most of my profits from appreciation in my portfolio, not in short term trading. In other words, I was a position trader. Any losses in my stock positions were taken out of my paycheck at the end of the month – in fact, I had to pay back any loss. If you are in this position, you desperately want to learn all the techniques to make large profits without risking much. I became an expert out of necessity. So while my trading account had virtually no losing months, my gains were as much as 300% per year.

In my stock picking, I first looked for stocks that were so cheap they could not go down. If they did go down, I was happy to buy more because at those prices, you could buy the whole company and sell off the assets for a profit.

From this group of “safe” stocks, you select the ones most likely to have large appreciation.

A stock is cheap in my book if it sells below the liquidation value of its assets, and most cheap if it sells anywhere near the net amount of cash it has on hand. So the first two measures of value I looked for were book value per share and cash per share.

Book value is the value of the shareholders equity carried on the books of the company. Generally, since you are buying a share of stock, you will want to know the book value per share.

The one caveat to looking at book value is that companies often have intangible assets on the books, goodwill and the like. You have to take these intangible assets with a grain of salt. The safest thing is to look for “tangible book value.”

Book value per share is often calculated for you in the various Internet financial stock search programs available.

The next indicator to look for is cash per share or working capital per share. Working capital is current assets minus current liabilities. These assets are near to cash or will generally be turned over in one year: receivables, inventory and the like.

To measure the health of working capital, divide current assets by current liabilities to get the “current ratio.” A current ratio of two to one or better usually indicates a solid company. As long as the company does not have any long term debt, or at least none coming due in the near future, the company is solvent and should be around for a while – little or no bankruptcy risk.

Next, we look for low price-earnings (P/E) ratios. In my opinion, buying high P/E stocks to chase growth companies is inviting real risk. If the company disappoints in earnings, not only will the stock drop from lower earnings, the P/E ratio will deflate as well, giving you a double hit.

OK, so you have found a company that is selling at or below book value with a current ratio better than 2:1, and a low, low P/E. It may be that the stock will not go down, but will that stock go up?

Picking growing industries and growth companies is more than I can tell you here, but there are two simple things you can look for first: (1) Is the company buying its own stock, or has it bought its own stock at about this price, and (2) are the insiders making hefty purchases of their stock?

Next, you can look at the ratio of revenues or sales to market values or the dollar amount of sales per share. Generally speaking, the company with a relatively high amount of sales per market value or sales will have more action on the upside. That company has more revenues to make profits from.

After you have narrowed the field using the above techniques, there will be no substitute for intense homework about company prospects to find which of those cheap stocks that truly give you superior returns, what I call my “Home Run Stocks.”

Stock Market Retirement Investment Plan

For a successful retirement investment plan to work in the stock market, some ‘reasonably sure’ assumptions would have to be made:

The retirement investment plan must take into consideration the one prevailing constant in any stock market security – risk and uncertainty. Understanding that risk and uncertainty are the key factors that propels the return on investment in the stock market far beyond the returns of Passbook Savings Accounts, CD’s or Bonds are a start. The plan’s key factor would be to use the risk and uncertainty of a stock market security to its advantage.

The retirement investment plan should be founded on the belief that no one can successfully retire without financial freedom. Therefore, the retirement investment plan’s main role would be to supply you with income during your retirement years, while also taking into consideration the risk of inflation. This should be accomplished without having to touch the principle.

The retirement investment plan would require discipline to accomplish its goal. The goal should be clear and specific, and the discipline necessary to accomplish the goal, just as clear and specific. Also, the retirement plan should not be financially out-of-reach, allowing as little as 100 dollars to begin, with as little as 10 dollars a quarter to continue.

The retirement investment plan’s return on investment should be aimed toward providing income, and the income from the holdings in the plan should accelerate every week of the year, until retirement. This should be the case, no matter what the price of the security at any given time in the market place.

The retirement investment plan should be proven to you. Once proven, you must have the confidence in yourself to carry the plan forward. This do-it-yourself confidence means that the retirement plan’s ROI benefits only you and your family and no one else. A no-fee plan enhances the return on investment, allowing every cent put into the plan to work for you.

Companies owned in the retirement investment plan should have a historical record of raising their dividend every year. Therefore, a future dividend increase for the 10th or the 35th consecutive year in a row can be ‘reasonably sure.’ The guide for the selection of each security is its historical performance of rising dividends every year.

To receive the best return in the retirement investment plan, all companies in the plan would be purchased commission-free. All dividends from the companies would purchase more shares of each company commission-free. Therefore, every cent earned in ever-increasing cash dividends every quarter and any extra cash put into the retirement plan would work toward increasing the cash dividend.

Why bother beginning a retirement plan is best expressed, in my opinion, by a quote by Charles Kettering:

“I expect to spend the rest of my life in the future, so I want to be reasonably sure of what kind of future it’s going to be. That is my reason for planning.”

Forex Signal, Forex Signals Advise

There are lot’s of Forex signals providers out there. New Forex traders might be thinking of looking for a reliable Forex signals provider. Is there any reliable Forex signals providers available?

Personally, I will say do not pay for Forex signals. Think about it – if a Forex signals provider sells Forex signals for living, you can doubt their Forex trading skills? Or else if they are pretty good in Forex trading and making lot’s of profit, I am wondering why do they still bother to sell Forex signals for money. Thus, what would be the value of such Forex signals providers? The answer is ZERO.

There are Forex traders who have been relying on Forex signals arguing those Forex signals providers really help them making money in Forex trading. These Forex traders can even show their Forex trading logs as evidence. After some though, I came out with the assumption that assuming I am the owner of a Forex signals provider, in order for my business to be in black, obviously I need some satisfying customers. If I have 100 new customers this month, I send out buy signal for the 50 of my new customers while the another half with sell signal. At the end, I will able to have “some satisfying customers”. Finally, free advertising and testimonial will be made available.

If you are really new into Forex trading, it’s better for you to sign up a demo Forex trading account from any Forex brokers and try some practice trades for a few months. This will give you insight into how the forex market behaves. Then only deposit a small amount of money to get a real feel. There are great differences between demo trading and real trading due to personal trading psychology.

Final words, if you really wish to buy Forex signals from a Forex signal provider, make sure they have got an audited results and do provide a free trial over a substantial period.